The Knock On Effects of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: Brent Johnson

Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital explains how growing sovereign debt around the world will culminate in a crisis that will push more global capital into the U.S. dollar market.

#usdollar #currencycrisis #debtcrisis

[peterburke]

History and statistics and a man that remembers.great talk.thanks love from Australia.

[rp]

good arguments from Brent, agree with his analysis

[JonKino]

US dollar didn't move at all in the past week with all the banking crisis.
Is that an indication of de-dollarisation having more effect than anticipated?

[peacefulprepper]

Outstanding historical data on GDX and GDXJ. Both have lost since inception.

[TerryBowl]

How is the US government going to pay 16tn due in the next three years?

[YourManifoldWorld]

Brent is right about the current dollar weakness caused by rate hike expectations. The market is literally "front running" the FED, calling their bluff that they cannot hike rates higher because it will break stuff around the world (just look at Gilt and JGB), which it did and it is still doing (SVB, Credit Suisse, Deutchebank etc.)

But here is what's interesting. When things break overseas, there is a mad dash for USD. So, things breaking creates demand for USD globally.

[issenvan]

& USD being strong is ambiguous: against what exactly? Not against hard assets probably, in this abundance of Dollars. & what is the math behind USD vs. other aspects of DXY being de-valued simultaneously? Is this a matter of percentage or aggregate to determine which one is/ones are weaker?

[issenvan]

What does Brent mean by “short term”: 3-4 years?

[issenvan]

How about commodity-based EM stock markets vs. the American indices?

[issenvan]

How about silver or other commodities?

[issenvan]

Does Luke Gromen have a point in claiming that USD will remain strong against finance-based currencies like the Yen whereas will lose ground against commodity-based currencies like the Ruble, which should get de-valued against commodities like gold et al.?

[kelvinpritchard]

Brent, agree, it is not called a Paradigm Would You Kindly Mind Moving Over Please, it is called a Paradigm Shift for a reason.

[johnnyairport]

You guys need to control the crowd better; 86 the talkers. The crowd noise in the background is very distracting.

[Asmodai]

Peter Schiffs Gold Milkshake Theory is very plausible.

[issenvan]

How didn’t Japan default so far, with their debt/gdp?

[lcbrianyuen]

Like you said it's milk shake has been sucked up with higher interest rate, what'll happen if you pour down soda too fast? That's right, you regurgitate only just air.

[iammm]

Jim Roger spoke before him that when thing get bad, money will flow to least bad (US dollar). Despite Jim did not give this concept a nick name 'milk shape theory'.

[villhelm]

the dollar is going down relative to other currencies, but its getting wrecked relative to goods and services. That's why everything is getting more expensive.

[issenvan]

What do currencies represent, Brent? Do you have a recency bias?

[issenvan]

Isn’t it counter-intuitive to claim that increasing the debt-ceiling shall strengthen USD?