Kirill Shamiev: The Real Strength of the Russian Military

This is a conversation with Kirill Shamiev. Kirill is a Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he primarily focuses on the Russian military - and that's exactly what we talked about.

We discussed what is the state of the Russian military today, two and a half years into the war, whether it is able to learn and improve, what was the meaning behind the purges at the Russian ministry of defense, how much corruption affects Russian combat capability or how fast will it be able to rebuild its military to potentially face NATO.

0:00 - Intro
01:15 - Shape of the Russian Army Today
06:23 - Russia's Manpower Issues
08:21 - Putin's Painful Decision
14:52 - Russia's Potential New Offensive
20:10 - Patreon Question: How Much Reserves Russia Has?
23:40 - Russia's New Military Leadership
33:29 - Patreon Question: The Impact of Corruption
37:47 - Gerasimov Replacement?
41:56 - Russia's New Army To Fight NATO

[davidgab]

Some additions:
1) Russia increased sign up bonuses for volunteers immensely - it more than doubled since the start of 2024. You can get 2 mil. rubles in Moscow now (around 20k €,
a lot of money, when average monthly salary in Russia is around 500€), which is a sign of problems with finding enough people to wage this war.

2) Russian field generals don't really care about the war itself - they care that their position in the army. To not get punished you have to have success and success by their standards is captured territory, not saving soldiers.

[KenM_]

Ukraine should not give a single inch.

[hybridarmyoffreeworld]

yes, 'Breaking up Moscow empire is the only way to end its imperialism', And I don’t mean Putin´s imperialism, but Moscow imperialism in general, from Solzhenitsyn and Brodsky to Yeltsin and Dugin.

[captainhaddck]

Putler: "Everything is going according to plan!"

[iwantyourcookiesnow]

Comrade we need the proper balance of corruption and anti-corruption

[StoryMan_me]

Could they even equip another round of mobilisation?
Sure they could rotate people out. But those people coming home and spreading the word of what a disaster it is, is a problem too.

[zoomeraygun]

Dear little Putin - Unfortunately for Russia your new world order isn't working out for them 😂😂

[aconnagan]

Russia is trading soldiers' lives to maintain tempo and initiative. My guess is to keep Ukraine reacting, instead of planning offensives.

[MasticinaAkicta]

He probably will fight till the last men, then FLEE the country once Russia falls.

[hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Moscow horde´s war record :-
1856 defeated by Britain and France
1905 defeated by Japan
1917 defeated by Germany
1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states
1939 defeated by Finland
1969 defeated by China
1989 defeated by Afghanistan
1989 defeated in the Cold War.
1996 defeated by Chechnya
2022 defeated by Ukraine
WW2 won USA/Britain, meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn
Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :-
a) Hungary 1956
b) Czechoslovakia 1968
c) Moldova 1992
d) Georgia 2008

[precisajason]

Feels like I heard people saying this a year ago

[vlakdrak]

For any chance to a breakthrough they probably need 500k extra soldiers which they all have to be equipped, fed, transported, paid, etc…don’t think they actually have that capability.

[peterwinkler]

With all due respect, I disagree with this analyst on the potential for destabilizing Russia. There are many threats to Russia, both internal and external. About a year ago, Prighozin got within 200 km of Moscow and could potentially have ended the war in Ukraine and overthrown the Putin regime in one fell swoop.The Chinese (via incursions into Eastern Russia, Northern Caucasus unrest, PMC wars and coup potentials, and NATO hawks like Poland and the Baltics all pose a major destabilizing threat to Russia.

[IvanTsarful]

Didn't they say this 2 years ago?? last year too? 6 months ago?? missile shortage, shovel warfare...? bunch of bollocks it seems

[chapichapo]

Could you in one short sentence introduce yourself at the beginning of the video ? I discover the channel and it's strange to start without any info about who is speaking.

[ckling]

From what I've heard from other military, economic and political analysts, this guest is really lacking in perspective.

[Stigsens]

Is Geresimov alive? There was one video of him the last 6months, where he voted for Putin, could be last time or a standin.

[AlbinoMutant]

Corruption can only hold a regime together if there is enough wealth to go around. The massive budget deficit Russia had to pay down for 2023 is a sign that it’s getting harder and harder to grease the wheels. No matter how corrupt the system is, enough money has to make it to the population at large to keep them from revolt. With double blows of sanctions and massive military spending, it’s difficult to pay everyone off and still field an army, keep planes flying, and keep infrastructure together. This situation can only get worse as Putin depletes reserves.

[peterlaurie]

The big issue for Europe is, is Russia devoting itself to war? If it is then all these other discussions are subordinate. In this case Europe must actively deny Russia the means to wage war, simply for it's own survival.

[chrismitchell]

The decision for Putin is simple! Withdraw to 2014 border for peace!