The war nobody talks about is getting worse: Azerbaijan takes Nagorno-Karabakh

In a 24 hour stretch, Azerbaijan violated the ceasefire and defeated the Artsakh forces. The future is unknown for the many Armenian civilians who remain trapped in the Nagorno-Karabakh region but given the past history of Azerbaijani forces, this could get ugly quick.

Be sure to check out some of the resources below.

#armenia #azerbaijan #karbakh #military #war #russia #artsakh

[hovzad]

I'd like to expand on the Russian-Armenian ally ship misrepresentation that Preston points out. As an Armenian living in the States, I have also noticed most people don't understand the nature of their "alliance". Russia has exploited Armenia's (legitimate) fears that its neighbors will annex and likely wipe out Armenia if given the chance. For example, in 2022, when sovereign Armenia lands, not Artsakh but Armenia proper, were attacked by Azerbaijan troops, the CSTO, which exists to defend the territorial integrity of its member states, did nothing to defend Armenia. This was done to show Armenia the price of moving away from Russia's stranglehold, as if to say "we can let this happen and you can't do anything about it".

The relationship between the Armenian state and the Russian state is more akin to Lord and Vassal, or perhaps Master and Slave, rather than allies. One could argue that his represents the dynamic of the relationship since Armenia entered the soviet union but it definitely has been the case since the dissolution. Russian oligarchs own much of Armenia's energy infrastructure and rail system, not to mention many of its other resources. Whenever Armenian looks West to expand the economy, suddenly our rails breakdown and energy prices skyrocket. Furthermore, Russia protects corrupt Armenian politicians, like Kocharyan and Tsarrukyan, who accumulate vast amounts of wealth in exchange for Russian fealty at the expense of the nation's tax dollars and wealth. Since the revolution in 2016, Russia has repeatedly confounded attempts to arrest and try many of those politicians. In other words, they sponsor the corruption in Armenia

Russia does sell weapons to Armenia at a discounted price, but at the same time they sell a larger volume of weapons to both Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moreover, Russia sells some of its gas to Europe through Azerbaijan to sidestep the sanctions.

Russia's goal has been to keep the Southern Caucasus in turmoil and Armenia has only been a pawn in that endeavor, that is why whenever one side ever gets an upper hand in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia shifts its weight on the other side to prolong the fighting. I can't speak for everyone but I think both prudent Armenians and Azerbaijanis realize this

[RosieBaseball]

The international community hasn't done much because Nagorno-Karabakh territory is recognized as Azerbaijan's. When I looked at the area in dispute on a map, wow, it is not easy to defend. It is my understanding that the EU is buying energy from Azerbaijan as well...? It doesn't look like the Europeans are going to help.

[lockpickinglawyer]

Thanks for reporting on this… I’ve spent some time in NK, and still have connections there. One can’t watch this unfold with anything but abject horror.

You are correct that things are about to get much worse. In the past, rape, murder, & torture of civilians has been the rule (not the exception), in regions occupied by Azerbaijani troops. The verified war crimes are barely the tip of the iceberg. Now that there is nothing to counter these atrocities, they will only get worse. Trapped civilians are terrified… they know that staying in their family homes is a death sentence, but have no way out.

History will not look kindly on the world’s indifference… but that’s little consolation to the innocents suffering now.

[abrarsaeed]

I hope everyone understands that NK is Azerbaijan territory, just because ethnic Armenians live there doesn’t change that. They can’t just fight Azerbaijan, and expect them not to do something.

[Zz_Mike-Hawk_zZ]

At least everyone both from the Pro-Russian and Pro-Ukrainian spheres seems to agree on this. We are potentially witnessing the end of a multiple-millenia old culture of the people of Artsakh.

The area of Nagorno-Karabakh has always been Armenian According to all the censuses available.

Thanks for the coverage.

[fuseliber]

Karabakh region is an undisputed part of Azerbaijan, recognized by ALL COUNTRIES, including the UN, just like Crimea and Donbass is a part of Ukraine, Abkhazia and S.Osetia is a part of Georgia, Pridnestrovie is a part of Moldova.

[Haromour]

Been following this region's conflicts/war since 2020, nothing but locals in Armenia and friends who are connected to Armenia have ever posted anything i've seen and it sucks. Armenia is stuck between a rock and a hard place, turkey backing Azerbaijan with weapons that far out pace anything Armenia can come close to fielding. This goes back all the way to the Armenia genocide by Turkey and a lot of Armenian's fear things will go from bad to worse without outside help.

[xavierlaflamme]

As an Armenian. Thanks for the coverage here. There is definitely a change in Armenian alliances away from Russia and now aligned to western countries. We will see how things go. And yes. Azerbaijan has tons of war crimes that they posted online and have boasted about.

[User-aloha]

Blessing in disguise, why would anyone choose to have a life under AZ autocratic, corrupt regime, ruled by dictator and Oligarchy clan, no difference from Kim’s North Korea, I say move on Artsakh Armenians 👏, create and build better future and life for yourself and children in Armenia !!!
Always pity a nation bowed and submitted to tyranny !!

[zuruumi]

I don't think Armenia ever had the option to fight. Their army is in terrible shape since last time, they have no allies willing to back them and the region was cut off (so they would need to go on an offensive.

So going in with the army would just throw away their lives and give Azerbaijan even more PR and military advantage.

[ncarol]

Thank you Preston for covering the issue of Artsakh... Next is going to be Armenia unfortunately... if the world stays silent the same way they did towards Artsakh.
We as Armenias have suffered so many unfair/unjust wars... neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan has been held accountable for their committed atrocities... And Russia has always stabbed us in our chest...

[Echristoffe]

One thing not said.
Armenia is mainly Christian, Azerbaijan is Muslim and supported by turkey and Syria…

[charlesgeukgeuzian]

Armenia needs to learn from it's history, it is land locked, and surrounded by enemies, during the genocide, no western country came to it's side for help except Russia, what happened to nagorna karabakh, being sourounded by azerbaijan after the 2020 war, now Armenia itself has been sourounded by Azerbaijan, Nakhichevan (Azeri enclave), and Turkey.

[uku]

I think Armenia's pivot is mostly pragmatic. They realized that Russia is not a reliable ally, so they're getting friendly with the West instead. Although there's a lot of tension considering Turkey, a NATO member, has close relations with Azerbaijan. I hope peace can be achieved soon.

[hamobu]

In the 1990s Armenia counquered and ethnically cleansed part of Azerbaijan. What's happening now is that Azerbaijan is taking that territory back.

[ntcarib]

Armenia 🇦🇲 is very much aware of how bad things can get.

They are aware of history and how the world did very little during the Armenian genocide of 1915.

Very sad. 😢

[dennydritic]

Preston, you did a good job given you limitation on this subject matter. A couple very important points to add is that

1) The NK region is 99.999% Armenian

2) The region is known to Armenians as "Artsakh" because it has been an Armenian territory going back millennia. Anyone can google Armenian Kingdom during Roman Empire and you'll see a map of Armenia which encompasses not only current day Armenia, most of Anatolia but also all of Azerbaijan and the city of "Artsakh". While Azerbaijan the country was invented 100 years ago.

3) In 2018 (similar to Ukraine) Armenia had a "velvel revolution" which Nikol Pashinyan took power peacefully, and incredibly brought the country out of decades long Soviet style oligarchic authoritarianism. Simultaneously, he massively reduced corruption and began very active dialogue with the West for commerce. As a result massive amounts of foreign investment poured in from all over including a lot of diaspora Armenians. Sectors for IT, infrastructure, and tourist absolutely boomed. This economic boom was further contributed by the influx of Russians that emigrated to Armenia to escape Putin's "mobilization". Armenia's surrounding neighbors like Turkey, Azerbaijan and definitely Russia are all authoritarian dictatorships and they started making moves to thwart Pashinyan's new government style and positive economic strides. Not only did Russia not help in defending our territories, it actively began green lighting all the attacks by Azerbaijan to "punish" Nikol Pashinyan, make him look bad and topple the government back to its oligarchic Russian puppet rule, similar to Belarus. Most Armenian's understand this and very much do not want to go back to Soviet puppetry and corruption, however, there is a smaller but very loud nationalist groups in Armenia (perhaps %10-20) that very much does want to go back to old soviet style gov with the excuse of better security from Russia, and these nationists are doing everything in their power to topple Pashinyan including even a couple assassination attempts on him and his son. They tried post 2020 war effort but didn't succeed as Pashinyan again won by a landslide in a snap election. It remains to be seen if they will succeed this time, but even if Pashinyan is removed, its unlikely that Armenia will go back to Soviet style regime as majority of Armenians DO NOT want this.

4) Meanwhile the West has done very little to support us other than mere words and thats mainly because of their dependence on energy both from oil rich Azerbaijan and laundered energy from Russia via Azerbaijan. The West claims to care about spreading democracy but in reality they only care about it if there is natural resources to also exploit such as in Ukraine. Otherwise, they turn the other way, and leave Armenia surrounded by jackals to fend for themselves.

[sklaboratorychurch]

I appreciate your detailed reports. Unlike the brief news from Japan, I can gain a deeper understanding of Azerbaijan's situation from you.

[frany]

Thank you for speaking out about this conflict. The world should know about Azerbaijani atrocities against local Armenian people.

[vatchesouvalian]

It is sarcastic tgat azerbaijan used ISIS fighters in the 2020 imported by Turkey and yet they have the audacity to call people who want to live in their ancestral home terrorists 😢