What the Trump Assassination Attempt Means for November's Election

On July 13, an assassin attempted to take the life of Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president. We extend deepest condolences to those hurt and killed in the attack. Still, with all that is at stake, this video explores how the failed assassination will affect November's presidential election. Contrary to some hot takes, Trump's election is not a done deal. What happens over the next four months, both as it relates to the assassination attempt or otherwise, will still have a meaningful impact on the final vote tallies.

0:00 The Assassination Attempt
0:30 What We Aren't Discussing Here
2:16 Does This Guarantee Trump's Victory?
3:40 History's Closest Parallel: Teddy Roosevelt
5:26 How the Betting Markets Shifted
6:48 U.S. Political Polarization
7:59 The Long Delay Until November
9:04 When Assassination Rhetoric Backfired in Poland

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

By Platforma Obywatelska RP:

[BWEEOOP]

I'm tired of living through historical events

[Flornmonk]

We're living through some WACKY times.

[shubashuba]

"The affect on the election will be surprisingly muted. Maybe something like a shift of 7.5%"

Brother, 7.5% is fucking massive in a US election.

[gameswatcherAG]

800 pound elephant in the room sound kinda underweight for an elephant tbh….

[cleanwillie]

Teddy Roosevelt is not a good analogy. He was running as a third party candidate splitting the Republican vote. Taft was the incumbent President and was the Republican nominee. Roosevelt was popular but he had no chance of winning against an incumbent of his own party. There was pretty much no hope that either he or Taft could win.

[mb]

It would be nice if you did a video on the US and the history of political violence. It's hard for me to understand and put into context what is going on in America right now.

[Darkndustries]

ITT: You didn't tell us what to think, how dare you William!

[GymLone]

This country is a dumpster fire right now

[piccalillipit]

*THIS SAYS I AM COMPLETELY WRONG* and I like that. Its way more interesting to have your ideas challenged by intellectual debate than it is just to be right.

[aichujohnson]

People prefer status quo, yes.
However, there is a Grover Cleveland kind of situation, which is unusual. Both candidates have experience of being president. The public has seen both in action.
Hence, it is as if both are incumbent. Both are referred to as "President" even though one is the current, and the other is the former.

[mtirish]

Never caught lacking! I was wondering which of my political commentators was going to post first, not surprised in the least that it was William!

[SvdSinner]

I've been waiting for someone to bring up the Teddy Roosevelt story.

[Viper_th_RR]

400 feet is not a long distance even for someone who qualifies as a marksman in the Army.

[HistoryNerd]

I think it'll probably help Trump because historical parallels have created a rally around the flag effect and a bit of a sympathy vote. That being said, I don't know how much since we are a much more divided country than we were the last time(Reagan in 1981) and Trump is a much more controversial figure.

[snapicvs]

If the 7% increase in betting odds translates to a 7% increase at the polls, this would be the biggest landslide since Reagan vs Mondale.

[WilliamRoosa-hf]

It is truly refreshing to not hear all the polarized commentary.

[AlanTheBest]

I do doubt that many people would switch sides given the current climate. Maybe inclined people would turn up more to vote for Trump who wouldnt vote otherwise.

[Alexrocks]

Everytime I see the news I say to myself "I can't wait until I wake up" then realize this is actually happening. This is wild.

[georgesdelatour]

I’m not sure how relevant the stabbing of the Mayor of Gdańsk is to this case. The mayor, Paweł Adamowicz, was an admired local figure, murdered while taking part in a charity fundraiser. His murderer, Stefan W, was a mentally ill, recently released bank robber. His claimed motivations were pretty “out there” and incoherent. Adamowicz wasn’t a national party leader, and it was difficult to trace his murder directly to hostile rhetoric by his political opponents.

I can’t think of an Adamowicz equivalent of the Washington Post article titled "Yes, it’s okay to compare Trump to Don’t let me stop you."

[demonhunter]

Really had to dig into the archives to get those pictures of Melania and Trump together