The War in Ukraine: where to from here?

More than two years have passed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although accurate casualty figures are difficult to ascertain, well over half a million people have been killed or wounded, and many more displaced.

The war has passed through several phases, from the initial stalled Russian invasion and Ukrainian counter-attacks, a long period of grinding Russian attritional attacks, the failed Ukrainian 2023 offensive, and the defeat of the Russian Black Sea fleet.

Russia currently controls 18 percent of Ukraine's territory and appears to have the military initiative. Ukraine's victory, and maybe even survival, depends on Western support that appears susceptible to Russian propaganda. Russian victory may be equally difficult with few options acceptable to the Kremlin other than a long war with high human, social and economic costs.

So how might the war progress from here? Can either side see their way to victory? Can the war be contained? What might be the long-term impact on Russia?

AIIA Victoria invites you to join Richard Iron for a further appraisal of the military strategies and the possible courses of the Ukraine conflict.

[andriianashovam]

As a Ukrainian who is serving in UAF, I am finding such estimates as quite solid. Thank you.

[talesofcanterbury]

This is fantastic content. Thank you AIIA and Colonel Richard

[sparkyfromel]

How thick do one has to be, not to understand that the stakes for Russia is extremely high
It's about strategic security, a point which has a very large resonance in the Russian public

[gavinfoley]

Elite discontent in Ukraine? Illegitimacy and autocracy in Ukraine? Good points on Russia but don't look here for anything but bias. I'm sure those committed to one side will enjoy the presentation, as I did. Thanks for the show.

[DARDA]

CSIS in the autumn of 2022:" The United States have achieved their objective in Ukraine. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has or will." That's all you need to know.

[Alan.livingston]

Hands up anyone in this comment section who isn’t a Russian bot. They seem thick on the ground

[dammitdan]

Australia must be concerned with preparation for Indo-Pacific conflict instead of jawboning the American taxpayer unready to destroy another generation of its kids and struggling economy provisioning war in wealthy Europe. This American questions Australian elites' commitment to our mutual defense in its AOR.

[gavinfoley]

This started so well before turning to slogans.

[JabberwockyGB]

What is the basis for your assessment of Russian casualties?

It wasn't until towards the end of your presentation that you 'dropped the veil' and admitted that this is really a conflict between the West and Russia. Ukraine is just a tool for the West and the tool is becoming blunt with increasing casualties and loss of weapons, with limited capacity to replenish either.

How will Western populations respond to continued Western spending on Ukraine and the suggestion of conscription when Western European economies are fragile; especially Germany.?

[sanjasimonovska]

Boring, pro war stance, not objective...

[dwon]

Agree with everything he said until 29:00, which then is basically rubbish.

Though he is a fantastic orator.

[diggyd]

Saying it in a posh accent doesn't make it true.

[stuartwright]

Quit with the tounge clicking..
MR Speaker have a listen to your speech very unprofessional..

[alexalexeev-rl]

if you ukranian you do not go from ukraine(border is closed) - if you russian you can go from Russia(border is open) - in Russia was election - in Ukraine was not election