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Broncos vs. Bills Wild Card Showdown: Can Denver Pull Off the Upset?

🏈 The 2024 NFL Playoffs heat up as the Denver Broncos (10-7) take on the Buffalo Bills (13-4) in a highly anticipated AFC Wild Card matchup at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on CBS, with the Bills entering as 8.5-point favorites. Denver, back in the playoffs for the first time in nine years, faces a formidable Buffalo team that has been nearly unbeatable at home this season.

Game Details
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Broadcast: CBS
Spread: Bills -8.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Buffalo has thrived under playoff pressure in recent years, winning four straight Wild Card games. Can Denver's rookie quarterback Bo Nix and seasoned head coach Sean Payton defy the odds and make a statement in Orchard Park?

5 Key Storylines
1️⃣ Josh Allen's MVP Caliber Season
Josh Allen has been a force all year, throwing for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns while rushing for another 531 yards and 12 scores. Allen has excelled against the blitz, posting a passer rating of 123.2 with a 16:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Buffalo's offense, ranked second in the NFL in scoring (30.9 points per game), will look to exploit Denver’s blitz-heavy defense, which allowed big performances to top quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert late in the season.

2️⃣ Bo Nix Faces the Pressure
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has impressed in his first NFL season, throwing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns. However, this will be his first playoff start, and historically, rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road in the postseason (0-5 since 2015).

Sean Payton’s game plan will be critical in setting up Nix for success, particularly against Buffalo's zone-heavy defense. Nix’s ability to extend plays with his legs (430 rushing yards, 4 TDs) could prove pivotal.

3️⃣ Denver's Defense vs. Buffalo’s Firepower
The Broncos’ defense has been their backbone, ranking third in points allowed per game (18.3) and leading the NFL in pressures (195). Star cornerback Patrick Surtain II will likely shadow Buffalo's top receivers, while edge rushers Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks) and Jonathon Cooper (10.5 sacks) aim to disrupt Allen in the pocket.

However, Buffalo’s offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL (14) and excels in protecting their star quarterback. The matchup between Denver's pass rush and Buffalo's front five will be a key determinant.

4️⃣ Can the Broncos Control the Clock?
For Denver to stay competitive, they’ll need to rely on a strong ground game to control the clock and keep Josh Allen on the sidelines. Running backs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin will be tasked with establishing the run against Buffalo’s 12th-ranked rush defense.

If the Broncos can move the chains with methodical drives and limit Buffalo's offensive opportunities, they could turn this into a grind-it-out game.

5️⃣ Buffalo’s Home Field Advantage
The Bills are 8-0 at home this season, and Highmark Stadium has become one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play. Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 15-5 at home in the playoffs all-time.

With a raucous crowd behind them and cold weather conditions favoring the home team, the Bills will aim to keep their unbeaten home streak alive.

Predictions
Expert Picks
Pete Prisco (CBS Sports): Bills 23, Broncos 16
Bill Bender (Sporting News): Bills 31, Broncos 21
Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): Bills 34, Broncos 17
Florio (Pro Football Talk): Bills 30, Broncos 23
Simms (Pro Football Talk): Bills 38, Broncos 21
What to Watch For
Denver’s Keys to Victory: Control the clock, avoid turnovers, and force Josh Allen into mistakes.
Buffalo’s Keys to Victory: Let Allen shine, dominate the line of scrimmage, and capitalize on rookie mistakes by Nix.
Score Prediction
While the Broncos' defense has the tools to slow down Buffalo, the Bills’ balanced offense and playoff experience should prove too much for Denver. Expect a competitive game early, with Buffalo pulling away late.

Final Score: Bills 31, Broncos 20

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