The Big Lie | The TRUTH about the Housing Market CRASH

According to RedFin, homebuyer demand is plummeting, and people are finally waking up to the massive super bubble developing in the housing market. Is this finally the relief buyers have been looking for or will we continue to see prices skyrocket to absurd territory? In today's video, we look at the latest evidence backed up by data from Redfin, numbers that are painting a grim future.

A lot of people have been talking about a massive housing crash, a popping of a bubble that has been raging for years now. And it makes sense. Since 2019 prices have risen to absurd territory, to make matter worse, average payments have skyrocketed following a massive jump in interest rates. This one-two punch of prices and rates has created a uprecendted environment for buyers.

[justinraywolfe]

You must've missed the part where home values in numerous metro areas (e.g. Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, Las Vegas) fell by more than 50% during the last crash. Meanwhile, over two dozen U.S. markets are currently more than 40% overvalued.

It's also rather hysterical that Zillow is finally speaking of "softening demand" after their iBuyer speculative buying frenzy artificially inflated home prices until they booked an $881M loss last year and shuttered the program. But yeah, nothing to see here...

[Never_quit]

I find it interesting that you forgot to mention that more than 50% of people cannot afford these high prices… where is the sustainability?

[clay]

-Mortgage rates have already crossed 5% and will touch 6-7% by summer.
-Buyers who pre qualified at 3% are no longer qualified during closing now with 5% Mortgage rates
-Foreclosure stopped for last 2 years will start hitting the market.
-New construction supply will start hitting the market at the same time
-The wall street ibuyers will start dumping their real estate purchases once they realize there is no more price appreciation left.
-It takes just 1 house on the street to sell at 10-20% below asking to start the trend and pull values for the remaining "comps"

[wilsonjudson]

There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.

[Mrbikertomtom]

The whole property market is beyond a joke, over inflated with companies buying houses for profit / investment trusts. Pure greed. I’m in the UK and it’s just as bad, average wage is approx. £30k and most houses worth living in down South are £450-550k or in cheaper areas £300k if your lucky. You’re looking at 10-15x average wages. The market is still disgusting though, investors outbidding first time buyers etc. I’m hoping the base rate continues to go up... the variable mortgage rates will hurt the average person though with the cost of living crisis here. Madness

[kswan]

I just got back from going in a few open houses around my area in north east phoenix/ border of Scottsdale. Houses can definitely fall 50%. The stand out one today was a 1400 sqft diy remodel with almost no backyard asking 850, 000. There’s open house signs all over the place with a few people going in and checking them out, most of them likely curious people who live nearby.

[lonelyquant]

“Stanford professor Scott Sagan once said something everyone who follows the economy or investment markets should hang on their wall: ‘Things that have never happened before happen all the time.’”

[davidplaysgames]

There are 16 million empty houses in America...that sounds to me like there is plenty of supply but way way too much greed for the supply to do anyone any good when half are owned by banks and the other half investor's and then 10% are owned by actual family's.

[PapuchoG]

To the people that over bid our offer by $50k good luck 👍! This was multiple times !

[mujinarokko]

It is the perception. If Americans reject numerical devaluation of stocks and housing, outcome of the binge borrowing, what takes place is devaluation of the currency, i.e. inflation, especially in imported goods, like oil, iPhone. Exchange rate is under governments' control, and government officials may want to hide the devaluation of the currency, as is not very popular in Americans.

[nicholassmith]

Demand went down because people like me bought a house in the last year taking advantage of the crazy low interest rates.

[dontknow]

the only thing that will save people is if they build more houses and if overtime homes are not seen as assets, apricate less then inflation.

but this has not been the case ever

[t]

But the point is you didn’t add any of the data that any of the other YouTube personalities did. They all actually have real data. You’re not taking into consideration consumer debt is at an all-time high, stock market is down. Nobody is saying on any of those other YouTube channels that it will drop by 50% however even a 20% correction would mean a crash.

[alltheway]

Why is natural and decline is not?
Why offer and demand does not apply to price declines?

[simplyMaz]

A couple of points you missed in the video, 1 important one is leverage. Given real wages and savings haven't experience a jump it is safe to say most of that price contribution comes from leverage. I am not super informed on the American housing market but in Australia, the average household holds around 600k AUD in the mortgage. The recent rate increase from RBA which hiked the interest rates from 0.1 to 0.35, a 0.25 increase has cost the economy about 10 billion dollars. You know they can not contain the inflation so they have to keep increasing the rates until the economy crashes. The sheer fact is that high leverage has always been the death of any bullrun. The nature of the housing bubble is important. I can argue that this market is a lot more leveraged than pervious one and soon a lot of people will be priced out of the current market.

[cb]

Your neighbors are not going to sell their houses. When they have 2% interest rate.

[timpenfield]

ZILLOW and redfins stock charts are identically shaped. If your asking what my point is, well, take a wild guess. Maybe a huge crash is not happening since the best neighborhoods in the US will always be hot, But we will see. The 1 reason I don't expect a full crash, ? Everybody says there will be a crash.

[Mano__Tony]

10% - 20% is big.... way big if put inflation in the equation !!!! So in some way @MHFIN agrees with other "experts" .

[jorges]

Damn I’m 19 years old and hearing this got me scared what if I never get to buy my own home and move out my parents in the future 🫠

[diegolara]

I have saved 800 a month because I bought in 2021. My brother in law is buying the same home design that we bought 1 year ago and its going to cost him 800 more a month for the same exact thing.