Why the Fed won't cut rates in July

The FOMC is set for their 2-day meeting on Tuesday, with most on Wall Street believing that it will not result in an interest rate cut, pricing in the first one in September. But what should investors look out for to be sure?
Liz Young Thomas SoFi head of investment strategy joins Market Domination to give insight into the Fed's potential decisions over interest rates and the data she is keeping an eye on.
In terms of what could be driving interest rate cuts, Thomas says, in addition to the jobs and inflation reports, investors should be watching for data on the consumer. "What you really want to watch is the results from consumer discretionary, but also consumer staples companies. How is their revenue doing? How is the activity in the stores doing big box retailers? Those are going to be good tells," she says.
Young Thomas believes firmly that the first cut will most likely take place in September: "I still think September is the first cut. There is chatter now about September being possibly a 50 basis point cut. I still view that as a very contrarian view, but we have a lot of data that we're going to get between now and that September 18th meeting. So we've obviously have jobs coming this Friday. I think that's a very important number. And then in August we have more CPI data, we have more PCE data, we have more jobs data. So we're going to get a decent amount of data before they have to make that rate cut decision."
#youtube #news #fed

About Yahoo Finance:

Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life.

- Follow Yahoo Finance on social:

[Alexibawendi]

I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks to Claire Brown

[IX]

Nice to see all these ghost accounts commenting.

[myahjordan]

I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation

[youtubegameshow]

July rate rate cut for July makes sense to get ahead of any unemployment jobs report because most people who lose jobs don’t even apply for the joke of unemployment benefits

[GamingLoreReader]

Do not be surprised when Fed Jpow goes with a rate cut this week. That slim chance will definitely surprise everyone and the market will go crazy.

[IX]

No need to cut rate if your buying up all the bonds.

[EasyYoutubeAI]

Capture the video in 1 minute 🚀⬇️
*Introduction*
Discussion centers around the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and the potential for interest rate cuts.

*Main Points*
1. Market currently sees a 4% chance of the FED cutting interest rates this week, with September being a more likely timeframe for a rate cut.
2. Upcoming data, including jobs reports and CPI data, will be crucial in informing the FED's decision on rate cuts.
3. Consumer behavior is a key focus, as it significantly impacts GDP, which is expected to slow to below 2% in the third and fourth quarters.
4. Consumer discretionary and staples companies' performance will be important indicators of economic health.
5. Earnings season has shown larger stock price movements compared to the past five years, with more significant rewards for positive surprises and harsher punishments for negative ones.
6. Investors have been conditioned to expect earnings beats, making misses feel more dramatic in the current uncertain economic environment.

*Conclusion*
The economic outlook remains uncertain, with key data and consumer behavior playing pivotal roles in shaping future FED decisions and market reactions.

[EasyYoutubeAI]

Capture the video in 1 minute 🚀⬇️
*Introduction*
Discussion centers around the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and potential interest rate cuts, with insights from market expectations and economic data.

*Main Points*
1. Market currently sees a 4% chance of the FED cutting interest rates this week, with September being a more likely timeframe for a rate cut.
2. Upcoming data, including jobs reports and CPI data, will be crucial in informing the FED's decision on rate cuts.
3. Consumer behavior is pivotal, as it constitutes the majority of GDP, with expectations of a slowdown in consumer spending impacting GDP growth.
4. Key consumer reports to watch include personal income, retail sales, and performance of consumer discretionary and staples companies.
5. Earnings season shows increased volatility, with companies being rewarded more for positive surprises and punished more for negative surprises compared to the past five years.
6. Investors' expectations have been shaped by multiple quarters of earnings beats, making misses feel more dramatic in the current uncertain economic environment.

*Conclusion*
The discussion highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and consumer behavior in shaping the FED's decisions and market reactions during earnings season.

[AmateurInvestments]

Everyone complains about the spam on x but literally every comment on YouTube is a scam bot