Ray Dalio: US at Beginning of Late Big-Cycle Debt Crisis

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio says interest rates probably won't rise much from current levels while talking with David Westin at Bloomberg Invest New York 2023.

Connect with us on...

[Greggsberdard]

Inflation is far more harmful to individuals than a collapsing stock or property market because it directly affects people's cost of living, which they immediately feel. It is not surprising that the current market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. In today's economy, assistance is critical if we are to survive.

[ptupy]

Most of the domestic social and economic pathologies we are seeing now (financial crises, racial tensions, social and political unrest, etc.) are symptoms of US relative power decline and overextension. What Dalio is describing in simple terms is the beginning of a classic power transition period, whereby the dominant state tries to reverse its fortunes by overspending, running high deficits and inflation, and increasing its military commitments. For those interested, chapter 5 of Robert Gilpin’s War and Change in World Politics could be eye-opening. It came out in the early 1980s, but reads as something written today.

[swedesam]

In other words, we are collectively screwed.

[flemmingbrooke]

It really made no sense to me when he said ''It doesn't matter whether I'm right or wrong, whether the market goes up and down. I'm good regardless''. People are really losing a sh*t ton of money out here. I personally have been buying stocks since the beginning of the year and yet nothing's changed, but I've been reading articles of people still in the same market pulling off over 350k in just a couple months. Its tough out here!

[mikehilkins]

We need midle America. Best solution. Too much fighting is not good.

[torontoguy]

How did the US sell bonds between 1945 and 1981 when interest rates went from roughly 2% to almost 16%? Wouldn't they have had the same issue? That's over almost 40 years of constant increases (with small period of decreases).

[danieltan]

Bank of Japan is the role model. Endless QE and self monetization.

[johngendron]

When the treasury has to buy the debt, watch out.

[Shifter]

My friend labels this as, “Asking someone what time it is, and they build you a clock, but never tell you the time”. Dammit! 😜

[Muller_Andr]

I read about a certain Schommer, U.S Army. the likes of Josh Scandal. He got a Bronze Star Medal for exceptionally distinguished service during Operation Iraqi Freedom. His Iraq experience helps him now in dealing with the grind of daily volatility in tough stock markets — and those big gulp moments.

[AllThingsFunny]

There can never be demand for all those treasuries. The fed has always bought them

[DxWangZ]

Let me translate his speech into English:
1. According to his own book, Big Debt Crisis, Part 1, page 18, the beginning of the late cycle seems to be the end of "beautiful deleveraging", where equity low is already behind.
2. He wants you to worry that China no longer purchases the US Treasury. I think he is right because China will be no longer able to. But, whoever exports goods to the US in future will gradually take the replacement. So no worries about it.

[financialintelligencecreations]

Things are about to get very interesting… good luck to everyone in the coming months and years

[jsywfmy]

Thank you! I'm here to help and discuss anything you'd like. What topic would you like toexplore or talk about?

[samfish]

reits are having trouble as their rates go up from 3% to 7% blackrock is not letting investors
withdraw money other compaines reits are trying to hand buildings to lenders, lenders dont want buildings

[marcocarlson]

Don' t agree with him on certain things, but in this interview he said the truth, in my opinion. So, the key according to him, is that with the political situation in the U.S. we need a new middle consensus Party or at least total bipartisanship, That Is Sustainable, to tackle America's current 'catastrophic' problems and situation. 'Catastrophic' being my word, not his, as I doubt he'd say this. Therefore, not govern America by as he said the extremes. He must think this would buy America some time, and possibly so. Question: Is there anyone who understands anything about American politics, and what it is now finally, that believes there is a 1% possibility of that Actually materializing and sustaining. I sure don't see how. as with anything, at least we can hope.

[Chris]

It's really captivating to see how the stock market and the most recent inflation statistics, together with the instability of the banking sector, correlate. It's interesting to see how retail investors have been drawn to digital currencies as an alternative asset in times when confidence in traditional banking is eroding. In the constantly changing world of finance, the permission-less and autonomous nature of these virtual assets provides a sense of safety and value.

[headspaceandtiming]

“Financial Not Good Situation”. Geez, trying not to say we are in a bad financial situation?

[elliotsilverstone]

Sounds a bit like Within the Context of No Context.

[DxWangZ]

Is there anybody making any money following his advice?