I Was Wrong About Real Estate

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The housing market, one big house of cards, that according to most experts is already in the middle of a collapse. Look anywhere from CNBC to YouTube, to Jerome Powell, and the trend is clear. The housing market is set to implode. On paper it makes sense. A large number of variables are flashing red. Mortgage rates have risen to nearly 6%, and home prices are hitting new highs daily. The average payment has went up over 70% YoY, and plenty of companies involved in real estate are warning of a slowing market, some even laying off large percentages of their workforce.

Link to Bill McBride Blog/Substack

RedFin Data

Link to my Twitter

0:00 - 0:57 Intro
2:17 - 3:48 Signs of A Crash
3:49 - 4:33 Leading Indicators
4:44 - 7:40 Why I Could Be Right
7:41 - 8:28 Position Update & Outro

[MHFIN]

#Masterworks - The only investment platform dedicated to art investing

[Suppennudl]

Is it just me or is this basically the same video over and over, about how RE won't easily come down?

[brendangreen]

I don't think I will listen to a guy who thinks a looming deep recession wont flood the market with property that will only sell if its cheap...inventory levels with rocket and buyers will exit the market. Sentiment is everything. Fear of missing out will turn into Fear Of Catching a Falling Knife. Seen it a few times and this is not looking good. All he's done is focus on inventory levels without focusing on multiple factors that will see Buyers stepping back. If he did that he would see the immediate catalyst for surging inventory. Institutional investors off loading. Job losses. Commercial banks tightening lending standards. WTFU.

[smallbusinessnerd]

Just saying the last mortgage calculated at 7.5 percent is on a 15-year fix and not a 30-year fix like the first two. It would be closer to $565, 000.

[andyjoinscults]

Will unsubscribe if your videos are just ads end to end. Seriously. Stop it. We’re not idiots!

[doughurst]

These takes are cold man - were already seeing a massive decline in AZ. The Cromford Report stated THIS Monday that the market is moving the quickest its ever been and expect to be in a balanced market very soon.
-Rentals yields are down huge YOY and even MOM (remember 40% of home buyers were investors the past 2 years)
-Contract Ratio is the weakest since 2014
-CMI dropped nearly 50% in 2 months
- New listings success rate is lowest since 2011 (might be longer since they didn't tack before 2011)

You need to learn a valuable lesson my dude - DONT FIGHT THE FED. Listen or not idc

[sethrosenberg]

Having been in Florida in 2008, you are leaving out is AirBNB is no longer profitable for most new investors, and lots of properties are losing money or being switched to monthly rentals, the amount of loans securitized by crypto, and growth stock portfolios that have gone to nothing, the increase in insurance rates. Inflation is pushing budgets to the limit and there are already people underwater who bought this year and prices drop. In Florida, I knew people in that situation, they just stopped paying, waited for the eviction and moved to a rental. August 2008 sellers market, no inventory 1 br -$450k December 2008- same house $45k. There is no equity to leverage when the prices drop.

[luiscordoba]

You are indeed wrong. Home prices Are coming down. I've seen 15 to 20% drop so far in WA state. High inflation, impending recession and layoffs will continue to decrease the piece of homes. This is not the bubble we saw burst in 07-08. These are prices coming down due to low demand.

You mentioned in previous videos that you did not foresee prices coming down as we did not have the same circumstances we had last time. "this time is different"

[ramseyb]

Housing prices are still ridiculous in CA. Real Estate is also in a bubble because their price increases have gone up way higher than incomes. The ratios are at historical highs. It would be a bubble regardless of the stock side and investors. I'm just gonna stick with stock diversification using the copytrading system..18% up, so I'm doing just fine. Just an average Joe trying to survive/thrive in these crazy markets.

[labrinth]

Federal reserve wants to make 7 more rate hikes this year. I would listen to them.

[grownupgaming]

I like re-watching this. lol makes me feel smart.

[Amin-tkcx]

Ok that is I am putting you as “don’t recommend channel” not because I can’t hear the opposite view but because your video just sounds like a hole who insists he is right despite massive evidence that is not the case..

[wolfpack]

Around here inventory is sky rocketing. FOMO is taking off.

[peerlessd]

Will vary by city/metro. Can’t peanut butter spread statistics on the housing market. I’m northeast Atlanta and there’s 25% more inventory than 6 months ago and price reductions everywhere. Tons of new builds sitting still and thousands of new apartments about to be completed. This market is cooked. Also btw. I know some high level executives at large leasing company. Told me last week the and all their competitors like first key, invitation homes, ah4r etc have stopped buying. They are actually selling off properties as leases don’t renew. They know something is about to happen. Good luck.

[Tdriver]

Ummm yeah, inventory is going to explode... Need to keep an eye delinquency rate.. the layoffs have begun. No work, no money... This is going to be a slow roll collapse.. no Lehman Moment or Pandemic.. this is a 1970's recession.. i remember those days...

[cedwards]

Bro...the crash comes when everyone loses their six figure jobs & can no longer afford to keep their homes. Then comes the supply. Then comes a huge uptick in foreclosures. Then comes the crash. Housing market crashes take years. The first few dominoes have already fallen.

[AndyFL]

Interesting video. While I understand your thoughts and using past data to support your position, you are leaving an important factor in the equation. Inflation....price inflation to be more accurate. Not house price inflation, food and energy. I deal with a lot of people daily at my business. Older people, I'm 58 myself, are basically in an okay position. Higher fuel and food prices aren't pleasant to us but our houses are paid for along with most other things we own. Younger people on the other hand are being crushed. I recently spoke to a loan officer at our local bank. She's under 30 yrs old. She mentioned that her and her husband couldn't figure out what was going on with their personal finances. They hadn't changed anything about the way they live but the past year they not only haven't been able to put money into their savings have actually had to take money OUT just to stay afloat. I explained to her that I had already lived through an inflation cycle back in the late 70s and early 80s. Package sizes shrink, so you end up having to buy 5 of a product over a month's time where in the past you only had to buy a 25% hit to their pocketbook that is easy to not realize is happening. Every time she fills her gas tank, that's $20-30 more that is disappearing out of her bank acct...she's buying the same amount of gas as a year ago, it is just costing way more.
My point is that credit loads, especially credit card debt, is skyrocketing as these younger folks try to tread water. There is only so much debt someone can take on before they are FORCED to stop adding new debt and start trying to pay down existing which now has a higher interest rate attached to it. That is why stores like Target are choking on people are simply tapped out. This reality WILL hit the housing market in a big way. As with many things, it just takes time to play out.

[VillainStatus]

The last guy bought a house at 15 years when the other 2 did 30 years. Not entirely the same.

[jst]

I used to think this channel shared relevant data. I was wrong and you are wrong. The housing market will come down substantially and I believe your segments on the housing market won't age well. unsubcribe.

[asader]

Have to ask these videos seem very repetitive has this fellow recently purchased a house?