Bitcoin Will Be Banned? (Ray Dalio)

In this video, I discuss Ray Dalio's comment that Bitcoin will be banned.

There are many problems with Dalio's statement including:

1) It assumes that Bitcoin will go up 5-10x from here to even put it on the radar of governments to be banned. So you have to be really bullish on Bitcoin at $16,000 to even be worrying about this as a future possibility

2) The prices of things that are banned usually go up (alcohol, marijuana, LSD, guns and accessories, gold in 1933)

3) Bitcoin is non-physical and decentralized, which makes it almost impossible to stop. There are full nodes and miners all over the world. You would need every single country to cooperate, and many of them might not choose to be hostile to a currency like BTC that is a potential threat to the USD.

4) Capital is mobile. So are Bitcoiners. You can ban them, but then they will just move to a more friendly jurisdiction. Brain drain and capital drain.

5) As more Bitcoiners get elected to public office and appointed to regulatory positions of power, they will pass laws and regulations that are Bitcoin-friendly.

6) The game theory of Bitcoin-- it is safer just to own a little bit of Bitcoin as an insurance policy. Why ban it when you can own it?

7) Millennials and Gen Z are much more crypto-friendly that preceding generations. This bodes well for Bitcoin and poorly for gold.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

Ray Dalio on Bitcoin:

Rather than being banned, Bitcoin institutional adoption is actually increasing:

My favorite Bitcoin dashboard:

Market caps of S&P 500 companies:

Map of Bitcoin nodes:

Bitcoiner elected to U.S. Senate:

More billionaires buying Bitcoin:

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[zlatanstevic]

Although I own some crypto and hope BTC will not be banned, I fully disagree with the conclusion that banning it will increase its price. Potential ban on BTC will make all institutional money go away and price would dump big time because institutions will not carry the risk to be shutdown by regulatory bodies if catched holding crypto assets. Parts of retail money will certainly flee as well, leaving only heavy BTC hodlers in the game.

Let's not get blined - as crypto invesetors we should always question and retest the thesis,

[christophergraney-ward]

I don't think the comparison of prohibition to banning bitcoin is a fair one.

[bobgorelick]

Hi Matt. I just recently discovered you and I find your videos extremely interesting. You have a great, natural way of speaking, and that it makes it easy to digest some of the complicated subjects you talk about. I also think you are knowledgeable and do not lean towards bias or hyperbole. Keep up the good work!

[HG-vvhf]

Ethiopia today Nov. 26, 2020: ..."a claim CNN has been unable to independently verify due to a communications blackout in the region. Internet, mobile phones and landlines are all down."

So, the internet CAN be taken out by governments. Hmm...

[whycanthebodiesfly]

Crypto's will not get banned, the on/off ramps will be over regulated so as too make them pointless to use.

[SAL-fsmr]

Making it illegal to use bitcoin in certain countries will just result in people taking their wealth (and all the tech innovation) to other countries.

[perrier]

bitcoin is great, you can make a lot if you are a good speculator. The comparison of banning bitcoin to marijuana is invalid because the value bitcoin comes from speculation while marijuana's value comes from consumption.

[spiceyprotein]

If the general population realizes the pitfalls of fiat, why would they want another fiat like bitcoin? It also uses a lot of unnecessary energy to do a simple transaction. As environmental concern rises I can’t see the free market desiring nor government adopting it. Especially when their are much better alternatives

[faramarzmokri]

When US and ECBU issue their own Cryptocurrencies ( as soon as 2023) the governments will at some point after the launch ask the Cryptocurrency owners to exchange their private Cryptocurrency like bitcoin for governments issue by first declaring how much you own!
No government will tolerate an alternative currency for theirs.

[johnrivinius]

One thing that people fail to realize is if bitcoin was a real asset. Governments and central banks would be stock piling it

[jaygatsby]

Ray is a deep thinker. And he’s been more successful in his life time than most would be in a 100 lifetimes. But I think he’s wrong here. No banning. At least not by the US.

[jyy]

Man... this video is "gold" (now we should say "BITCOIN") LOL
Amazing info, i took down notes as i watched this video.
Been holding bitcoin since $600, and still learned a lot. thank you!

[cuetheplanesound]

Banning Bitcoin is like trying to ban Math. Lol.

[landlordone]

What I never seem to grasp is why people say there is a maximum amount of bitcoin allowed/ mineable. Surely if the bitcoin is infinately divisible which it seems to be then there is an infinite amount available?

[rahulchahal]

Absolutely agree ... with US government owning $1 Billion + in Bitcoin... which if it goes 20X or 50X or 100X then that could be nice pocket change for the Treasury to hold. By the way .. stock I’m still buying but hold as core position in MSTR. You may want to redo the different ways to buy Bitcoin .. directly buying Bitcoin, options on Bitcoin (ledgerX), GBTC, MSTR among other ways. I’ve used multiple venues to have a stake in Bitcoin is due to what brokerages would allow me besides directly buying Bitcoin. Thank you for educating me about the different ways to buy or leverage Bitcoin investment

[davidshechtman]

Banning a physical commodity, even gold who's intrinsic value often exceeds its exchange value, is quite different than banning a medium of exchange or store of value. If people don't have a use case scenario (like you would for a bottle of bourbon) then that medium would look far less attractive. Adoption of a faith based instrument for one of your basic unit of currency takes time and BTC is not there yet. If they tried to ban cash then yes, I believe that it would persist and take on new incantations

[Fabio-mcmb]

Thank you Matt for the video! I am also thinking as you said about the exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, etc. If they ban BTC why not all the other ones... All coins and token banned? It seems really unlikely to me.

[tradingwithwill]

He wants to buy the dip after they trash Bitcoin.

[Paltibenlaish]

do you think is smart to keep your bitcoins in the exchange? for example in kraken exchange?

[welderella]

Chase won’t let me spend more than a couple hundred dollars on crypto at a time. And I keep having to pay fees for little purchases. I don’t know if the percentage would lessen if the purchase was higher.... but it frustrates me.