Football betting tips | How do you predict a draw in football match?

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Lay the draw is a popular Betfair trading strategy. But curiously sometimes the best way to thinking about which matches to trade with this strategy is to predict matches where it wouldn't work!

In this video, we explore how to predict a draw and it's something I refined way back in the early 90's as I pursued my dream of winning the football pools.

To do that I had to predict eight out of ten football matches as a draw and that's exactly what I achieved using the methods we mention in this video and some optimal covering.

Predicting a draw can be really helpful when you are working other Betfair trading strategies as well or just a plain old traditional betting strategy.

So whichever you choose to use it, watch this video and learn how I would recommend you predict a draw in a football match. For related videos check out other football content on the channel where I go into much more depth about forecasting goals.

Enjoy!

#football #bettingtips #draw
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Brilliant thanks Peter. Its very hard to find genuine "guru's" out there and having met you in person and done one of your courses I can totally trust your findings and guidance.👍

philaddison
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love your series of videos on disecting football markets, you explain it in a clear understandable manner, and diagrams color coding is great. I bought an a racing post publication book Kevin Pullein on soccer metrics, but if was jargon heavy/ quite maths formulaic so not a good read!

Shane-bylh
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Thank you Peter!
I am horrible at trading, but you make everything look laughably simple.
I was actually laughing when you explained the correlation between number of goals and a draw probability.

aleko
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I have a simpler strategy for finding a draw. Ask yourself 4 questions:
1)Would both teams be happy with a draw?
2)Are the teams evenly matched?
3)Is the price on under 2.5 goals below 1.6?
4)Do both teams average less than 1 goal per game over their last 10 games?
If the awnser to all these questions is yes than I would probably put the game on my shortlist for a potential draw.

ebojfmdboojoh
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Hi Peter, How are these numbers in the year 2020?

RoberioCavalcante
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Peter, I am watching your videos with great interest but it's hard to know in what order to watch them. Could you serially number them in their titles so that they can be watched in chronological order? Would be a great help.

malcolmbryant
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Where and how do you keep all of your data?

aleko
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Time to bite the bullet, your videos are succinct and to the point.Keep them coming.Looking to trade my bets.
Very interested in trading 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 in games that have a probability of 2 goals and less.Significant Home Bias probability
Also trading games that have a high probability of 3 goals or more2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 3-0.Again with high home Bias probability.
Will be subscribing on a longer term basis to Bet Angel.
Thankyou for sharing greatly a lighter note Southampton 2 Everton 0 Happy Days

jollyswagman
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Hey Peter, aside from recording your screen whilst trading, how else do you collect horse racing data? I actually wrote some software a while back that could be re-purposed for logging racing data, is there something that already does the job very well?

syproductions
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Good video and well explained. This makes a lot of sense and will feature in my thinking on predicting draw situations and the likelihood of goals. Very relevant video to the Scotland Lith game. Lateish away goal, home team, low scoring. Makes sense. Cheers Peter, please build on this video stats analysis, great insight and helpful. Cheers.

ray
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Too much talk and don t know what is the point of stradegy

bandroom
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The reason home teams had a bigger advantage years ago is because it took longer to travel.

Mr.A.Tatlock
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Hey hi how can I contact you directly i want to show you something I'm trying to win a pre selected ticket and I always get 10 correct out of 17 matchs I always miss 7 how can you help me get those 7

bennyzimba
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I don't believe in history... to days match will create a new record that u will don't follow...u can depends on past record only 20% consideration..

vinodrao
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Is there anywhere I can find these data for football?

andrewngai
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Accrington Stanley... who are they!!?!?

madaboutguitar
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If you can't factor in what the home team had for breakfast - all bets are off!

ALLROY
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Peter, Accrington Stanley was not founded until 1968!!!

mylesism
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Why you telling us, just bet and make

dotacentrelink
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Brilliant thanks Peter. Its very hard to find genuine "guru's" out there and having met you in person and done one of your courses I can totally trust your findings and guidance.👍

philaddison