Is This the Beginning of the End For Orbán?

Viktor Orbán's Fidesz has governed Hungary for nearly 15 years now. But, according to the recent polls, his tenure might soon come to an end. In this video, we're taking a look at what's happening to the polls, why his support is declining, and take a look at the new party that might take the reins.

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Hungarian Opinion Polls

Péter Magyar/Tisza

00:00 - Introduction
01:10 - Polling Data
03:16 - Fidesz's Slump Explained
06:47 - Is This the End for Orbán?
08:05 - Sponsored Content

[andrijherasymenko]

It's funny how Peter Magyar's name literally means Peter the Hungarian

[danielbagyula]

As a Hungarian, I am just waiting for the time when Orbán has to flee to Moscow too and we can return to rebuild Hungary.

[Captpolak]

Did Orban eat all those taxes up during his rule. He looked thin in the intro😅

[midnightflare]

The pedophilia scandal was actually made worse with Novak's resignation. The president effectively became a figurehead and a ceremonial role under Orban, and her resignation felt like they are trying to sweep the issues under the rub. Which they did. The sad reality is that chronyism is a fertile ground for abusers, because loyalty takes priority over morals, which abusers can use to gain power. But to change that, the system must change.

[LajosKovács-wq]

2023 in Hungary: (uodated)
- In January, bread inflation was almost 82%, food inflation was over 48%, general inflation was 26.2%, three times the EU average!
- In the first quarter, real wages fell the most in Hungary with a 15.6%, which is 4 times of OECD average
- In July our money lost 36% of its value in 2 years due to inflation !!!
- In January, Lőrinc Mészáros, Orban's main strawman (a childhood friend, former gas plumber) increased the monthly tolls by 72% after he received the 35 years concession for running all Hungarian motorways
- Lőrinc Mészáros bought a yacht for 27 billion forints, which is almost 11, 000 years of average Hungarian pension. Mészáros's wealth increased by 50%, 330 billion forints in a single year
- Orbans's other strawman Jászai increased prices twofold, after buying up Digi, the main internet company, after pressure from repeated ivestigations by authorities forced the former (Hungarian) owner to sell the copmpany. Jászai also bought Vodafone Hungary (with state assistance) and increased prices by 22% too...
- The Matolcsy, the head of central bank (MNB), bought an apartment in New York for 14 billion forints, which is equivalent to 5608 years of average Hungarian pensions. Meanwhile, the MNB has accumulated losses of HUF 2400 billion
- The Orbán family's direct visible! wealth reaches HUF 100 billion, Orbán's father built a mansion in Hatvanpuszta for 10 billion forints
- Orban's son-in-law Istvan Tibocz (husband of Orban's oldest daughter) owns about 40 luxury property in the country (mostly 5 star hotels and office buildings) after received HUF 30 billion in non-refundable state aid, a generous HUF 133 billion in government "gift investments", almost HUF 29 billion in MFB loans and HUF 151 billion in "friendly" loans.
- The cows on János Lázár minister's stud farm got waterbeds for HUF 3 billion from the state!
- Defence Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky sold his Czech aircraft factory he bought with a state loan earlier, after the state placed an order for 12 military planes just after he became owner, and the press began questioning the conflict of interest... (the factory was almost bankrupt when he bought...)
- In 2023, Romania overtook Hungary in GDP per capita
- In 2023, Bulgaria overtook Hungary in per capita consumption, making Hungary the poorest member of EU.
- Hungary has the 2nd lowest average wage and minimum wage in the EU !
- The Dear Leader has finally found the magic weapon against inflation: he just had to fire the leading statisticians of the Hungarian Statistical Office, put them under the Rogán-led propaganda ministry and the single-digit inflation was achieved...! In 2023, the yearly average consumer price index was still 17.6% and food inflation 25.9%.
- In 2023, growth (-0.9%) was the 3rd worst in the EU
- 700 billion forints spent by the government to buy the Vodafone Hungary and give it away to Orban's stooge (equivalent to about 280, 000 years of average Hungarian pensions)
- 2021 foreign human traffickers were released from Hungarian prisons in 2023 (official explaination: keeping them in prison is too expensive)
- There are already 100, 000 Asian migrant workers in Hungary, who are undercutting the wages of Hungarian workers, with their numbers increasing by about 1, 000 a month
- 40% of the Hungarian population run out of money by the end of the month, with no savings
- The Hungarian birth count has fallen to an all-time low
- OTP survey shows that 94 out of 100 young people do not want to work in Hungary !
- 125, 000 Hungarians already work in Austria
- Half a million Hungarians have disappeared in 10 years, the country's population is below 9.6 million, at 1953 levels and falling
- In 2023 the budget deficit was 4593 billion forints, about 6.5 percent of GDP, more than double the 3 percent accepted by the EU, the Hungarian state paid the largest interest burden after the national debt in the EU to GDP (4.3%), the interest expenses amounted to HUF 3, 500 billion, which is equivalent to 1.26 million years of Hungarian average pension, meanwile GDP growth rate was -0.9%.
- In december, a new law was launched to silence critical media outlets and civil organizations!

Just for those who look to Orban as a role model, you should know what to expect...
No copyright!

[gaborbakos]

The weird thing is he started in 1986-87 as an extreme liberal illegal oppositional activist. With his buddies they founded the Fidesz party which was a little extremely anti-Russia and a extreme liberal party. Orbán was the vice president of the European Liberal International organization.

[Sostaska]

As a Hungarian I sure as shit hope so...

[balazsalex]

As a Hungarian i don't think anybody who supports Orban is a believer of democracy and fairness. And it is possible many people outside from Hungary who likes right wing politic would possibly hate this government once they live here a bit longer and understand the system better

[anthonybird]

*sigh* Don't make me tap the sign again:

"Polls don't matter, votes do."

[warkosy]

As a Hungarian-American, I am part of the MOGA movement:

MAKE ORBÁN GO AWAY!

[ZoltanTaylor-nx]

Looking at his most latest statement that there's no state money available to refurbish train stations it has to be given to subcontractors and that the Academy's property related assets will be sold soon, to me it's clear they see the end as well.

[davidhonaker]

I'm sorry "traditional family values" have always meant covering up abuse.

[MiSt]

As a Pole I really wish the Hungarians to achieve what we managed to do in 2023. It's possible! Don't give up and fight for your country!

[zsembor]

I’ve heard crime minister instead of prime minister in the beginning, ooops

[JoaoCosta-pnim]

Hungary has the lowest indices of consumption per capital of the EU. Despite the support received, Orban has managed to make his country one of the poorest in Europe. Hungarians need to get rid of him; he hasn’t and will not bring progress for the country.

[LambdaHDvideo]

Some additional context about the pollsters:

Since the middle of October (which is when the first individual poll came out showing Tisza ahead), there have been 19 polls released. Of these 19, 10 show a Fidesz advantage, 9 show a Tisza advantage - HOWEVER! Of the 10 polls that favor Fidesz, 9 were released by pollsters closely tied to Fidesz (6 of the 9 are explicitly financed by Fidesz, the other three have other close ties)

The perhaps most reliable pollster, Medián, is measuring a significant Tisza advantage. So is 21 Kutatóközpont, who had the most accurate predictions for the Hungarian EU elections this year (with an average error of only 0.7% across all the parties). Even IDEA and Závecz, which have close ties to direct rivals of Tisza (other opposition parties), have had Tisza in front of Fidesz in all 3 of their polls in this period

The main point being, that while the poll aggregator might show Fidesz and Tisza head to head, it's mostly because of the closely Fidesz-affiliated pollsters dragging that average down. If you look at the more independent polls, they show a significant Tisza advantage at this moment. I think that's important to point out

[mosalah]

Also, it is important to say, that Tisza's lead is bigger than on the aggregated polls. That slight slump in Tisza's popularity at the end of the poll is because during the last week, Fidesz funded organizations came out with the most random polls, saying Fidesz is leading with 10%. These are completely biased and only serve to counter the actual, non-government funded polls

[attilagyorffy]

As a Hungarian myself I would like to apologise in the name of my fellow citizens who couldn’t help themselves and left some primitive comments below this video. As shocking as it sounds, the loud ones aren’t the sharpest knives. But don’t worry, there’s plenty of us who are observing the unfolding events from the background, some of us quietly working towards a better future.

[richardmiddleton]

Political parties are like a tick. The longer they’re in place the more bloated and toxic to the host they become.

[mr.carguy]

He's not going to get replaced but I think a lot of Hungarians, myself included, are hoping he loses his 2/3 majority which would ensure that FIDESZ can't just pass anything they want.