Russia is Facing an Empire-Ending Naval Crisis

Take a look at how the Russian navy has been defeated in the war in Ukraine.

Russia's navy is in serious trouble. Ever since Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, the degradation of the Russian military has become more and more apparent. This is probably most easily seen in the navy, with the Black Sea fleet being made functionally inactive, and the Baltic Fleet being made functionally irrelevant, with wide sweeping repercussions across the rest of the Russian navy as well.

[AscotMarketing]

A few things about the Russian economy that are largely ignored:

1. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia have stopped buying Russian electricity.
2. Gazprom (the Russian state energy supplier) went bankrupt 3 months ago and needed to be bailed out by the Russian government.
3. Ukraine has continually been targeting Russian oil infrastructure since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The Russians have described some oil refineries as "total losses" with "irreparable damage."
4. Russia has made its oil output a state secret, so that economists can't work out its GDP with any accuracy.
5. 45 European nations have agreed to tackle Russia's "shadow fleet" (used to skirt around sanctions) of old uninsured, unregistered and questionably seaworthy oil tankers, with a proposal currently sitting on the desk of the White House.
6. Russian civilians in the Krasnodar region are currently protesting at electricity rationing, with many arrests taking place. The atmosphere on the streets is described by locals, as "like an unstable artillery shell, ready to explode at any moment."
7. The Russian Ruble exchange rate to USD has tripled since 2014 (meaning the value of the Ruble has plunged ~66% in that time).

Russia is slowly being starved of its oil production capacity, oil refining capacity, and the ability to export oil to foreign countries. Over 30% of Russian GDP is currently used to fund its military. 30% of GDP to fund the military is untenable for any economy to sustain, especially considering Russia's economic losses and sanctions since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine just needs to continue destroying Russia's military-industrial complex, while Europe and the US slowly strangle the Russian economy.

8. Russia has lost over 3 million people, mostly young and educated, who have fled Russia, since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
9. The Russian army has suffered over half a million dead, or severely wounded men (lost limbs, permanently paralyzed, or hospitalized long-term). These severely wounded soldiers will be a long-term burden to the Russian state, as they will never be able to work again, and will instead drain the economy through drawing disability pensions. These injured men will also depend on long-term medication and care. Family dependents such as young children may also have to be looked after by the Russian state, as they no longer have anyone to provide for them.

Ukraine Forever!

[erf]

Russia: The Ukranians have not been sinking our ships. Our own sailors just keep smoking near fuel and ammo depots.
World: Okay. But that's worse. You do see how that's worse, right?

[vladimirzarkov]

Your analytical depth and refined sarcasm are highly appreciated.

[alexanderweigand]

The Baltic Fleet is not longer importend for russia defence. After Putin made Sweden and Finnland to NATO member are there so many NATO airforces that the russian fleet is wothless.

[dag]

I can just imagine if the US and Russia would have started a conventional war years ago, the US Navy would be taken at complete surprise:

- Why do they appear to not see us?
- Is that ship sinking?? Did we already attack?
- Is their tactic to confuse us by appearing incompetent?
- Look, that destroyer is only driving in circles aannnd it hit a cruiser 0_0
- They shoot at us!! Get ready for battle!! Oh, their ship blew up.
- That rockets trajectory is weird, oh god it arced back and hit their own ship.
- The sonar had an U-boat on screen a few minutes ago, but it seems to have dived... Below crushing depth??

Well, this was fun for the 30 minutes this war lasted, lets clean up here and we go home?

[jgn]

Just wait until they're All gone under the water!

[paulmoffat]

In one year, Russian Oligarchs spent $1B MORE on their Mega Yachts than the Russian Government spent on their ENTIRE NAVY !

[HelloHi-gu]

Wonderful news, saw the title and it alone made my day!

[JCtheMusicMan_]

What do you call a newly created Russian ship? That’s right, a submarine 🤣

[malakiblunt]

Can we just focus on this again. The Russian Black Sea Navy has been defeated by a country that does not have an operational Navy

[shannonkohl]

Russia has been operating under the delusion that they are just as powerful as they were in 1990 since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Despite what the map said. Despite the massive loss of talent to the West. Despite the demographic collapse. Despite the failure to maintain competency in almost any area critical to being a Great Power that the Soviet Union had. And they never added any areas of competency during this period. (Contrast with the US adding Internet, massive scaling of data centers, and now AI, or places like Taiwan taking control of advanced chip manufacturing.) So Russia decline was a function of problems they caused themselves or their failure solve problems inherited from the Soviets. And the fact they blamed us for their problems is a big part as to why they cannot solve them. 

Future Historians will likely see 1991 as the beginning of the dissolution of the Soviet Empire, with sometime in the late 20's or 30's and being the end of it. It's likely that they lose many of their regions either to insurrections or to their neighbors. To say nothing of accelerating demographic decline rather than reversing it. We may very well see countries like Poland and even Ukraine end up more powerful than Russia.

[ronaldmarcks]

The Liberty Ship was designed to be built quickly. Sherman tanks were designed to fit inside Liberty Ships. It can be done, just not by Russia.

[NeCoNLive]

it's impressive that Russia can build so many submarines in just 2 years!

[colnuttall]

Russia's big problem is in recognising that Putin is past his useably date. He needs to go, so everyone can move on.

[janethompson]

I'm so happy to see your reporting back! ❤ 🇬🇧

[jenspedersen]

Finally an American who knows how to use the word 'literally' ❤

[NumbersLetters_]

Honestly Russia really isn't that bad. Since early 2022 they've done more for marine biology than any other nation on the planet due to their contributions of artificial reefs.

[billbellell]

That would then be the Russian rubber ducky fleet that might be dominant in a bathtub, until somebody opens the drain.

[sergiyrospysdiyenko]

Thank you for your work. Correction - Crimea is Ukraine, maps should be fixed... Its like marking Alaska part of Moscovia empire...

[AirB-]

The problems with the ru "navy" are just a perfect example of the ru armed forces in general. Hear me out here.
In order to function properly, and respond within minutes to an attack, a ship (which often includes more than 1000 sailors - 5000 + for a carrier), each person must be trained to an insane level in order to make sure that the coordination is done quickly and without a fail. Every time.
In the case of the ru army/navy, this simply does not exist.
Now running a (for example) tank into battle requires coordination between a minimal crew (3 or 4).
So this lack of training ($$$) is always going to be more visible in the Navy than elsewhere.