Poland strengthens Belarus border over Wagner fears

Poland raises security concerns as Russian Wagner Group mercenaries potentially relocate to Belarus, prompting heightened border surveillance. The uncertain motives behind the deal and the potential for increased instability have put Poland on high alert.

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Belarus-Russia's Wagner Group Deal Raises Concerns: Poland on High Alert. In a tense development, Poland is on high alert as the possibility of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group moving to Belarus as part of a deal triggers security concerns. With fears of increased instability, Poland ramps up border security measures while questioning the motives behind the Wagner Group's relocation.

The possibility of Russian Wagner group mercenaries relocating to Belarus as part of a deal to resolve their mutiny has heightened Poland's concerns about its neighbor. The border between Poland and Belarus, once marked by a few pillars and look-out posts, has undergone significant changes, with the installation of miles of tall metal fencing, thermal cameras, and spotlights. These measures were implemented after Belarus encouraged thousands of migrants to cross into Poland, an act Warsaw considers a form of hybrid warfare. Given the close alliance between Minsk and Moscow, the Polish government has expressed apprehension that Wagner forces could instigate further trouble. In response, Poland is deploying additional officers to its eastern border as reinforcements in preparation for potential unrest.

Michal Bura, a local border guard, explains that the unpredictability of Belarus poses the greatest threat. However, as we converse, the situation appears calm, aside from the presence of summer bugs in the wheat fields. The purpose of Wagner's movement to Belarus and their preparations remain uncertain, leading to a sense of unease. Although more than two weeks have passed since Yevgeny Prigozhin and his group of mercenaries entered Rostov, Russia unhindered and sent another armed group toward Moscow, the fate of the mutineers remains unclear.

The hastily brokered deal aimed to disband Wagner and exile its fighters, along with their leader, to Belarus. However, the large tent camp outside Minsk, likely prepared for them, stands empty, and no signs of Wagnerites have been observed thus far. Instead, evidence suggests that the group continues to operate within Russia, despite their renegade actions, which President Vladimir Putin denounced as betrayal. A voice message received by contacting Wagner using a male alias confirmed ongoing recruitment activities and provided detailed instructions to locate the mercenaries at their training camp near Krasnodar in southern Russia.

After the mutiny in June, it was surprising to find Wagner's contacts still openly listed online across Russia. Individuals contacted during that period affirmed their continued operations. However, those lists have now disappeared, and attempts to reach the saved numbers led to disconnected lines or unanswered calls. Nevertheless, an online contact remains active.

During communication as a potential recruit, I was instructed to bring specific items and undergo evaluation by an instructor to determine the most suitable deployment. When the question arose regarding potential deployment to Ukraine, the contact ceased responding.

For most Belarusians, the absence of Wagner in their country would be welcomed. Online discussions reveal concerns about the prospect of receiving an "army of criminals," referring to Wagner's recruitment from Russian prisons. Valery Sakhashchyk, a former paratrooper commander overseeing defense in a Belarusian opposition cabinet-in-exile, shares these concerns but expresses admiration for the mercenaries' march on Moscow, seeing it as a sign of weakness in the Russian system. He believes that the corruption is even more severe in Belarus and doubts that Wagner will relocate in significant numbers to his country.