🧨 Inside Pakistan's Economic Miracle: $5 Trillion in 30 Years? | 404 | TBT

Farooq Tirmizi is the CEO at Elphinstone.

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00:00 Introduction
02:48 Pakistan's Case: What are we missing?
04:10 Inevitability
04:35 Where will the money come from?
05:26 Learning from Others: What happened to economies like Indonesia and Turkey during their crises?
07:41 Electricity Crisis: Soaring bills and an unsustainable trajectory
09:23 Are we heading towards a lost decade?
11:26 Solutions for Growth
14:01 Will costs decrease soon?
14:35 Pakistan’s Demographic Snapshot
19:31 Annual GDP vs. Population Growth
21:30 Population Growth Projections
23:50 The State of Education
25:47 Defining Literacy
26:56 Learning at the Speed of Technology
27:54 Is Generation Alpha smarter?
30:10 Are we on the right path?
30:41 Pakistan in 30 Years: A Summary
37:26 Identifying Potential Risks
40:58 Foreign Debt: Is it that bad, or could it be long-term beneficial?
45:18 Pakistan’s Brain Drain: Is being ranked #1 in immigration a curse or a blessing?
51:25 Europe’s Aging Population: Economic impacts and current strategies
57:10 Global Conflicts: Historical trends and current concerns
1:01:44 Comparing Growth: Europe vs. America
1:05:30 Boosting Productivity: Is robotics the answer?
1:11:42 Conclusion

[manojchowdhary]

Pakistan should never worry. Pakistan is a nazriati mulq like Israel, formed during the holy month, and Waahid Islamic nuclear power of the world. Pakistan’s problems are caused by saazish of yahood o hanood o nissara though China is a trusted friend. Pakistan is also a leader of the Muslim ummah and provides security to them all over the world.

[HarshPatel-yhcq]

He is living in a dream world. Pakistan land doesn’t have enough space for all the people and if they are not educated no one will want them. Also the education will need to be provable world level

[TomRikki]

Thinking what we can achieve if we are having people like these in India as well. Keep encouraging people of your country I am sure you guys will do better then us. Positive mindset is everything the rest is secondary.

[Adam-xhpq]

Pakistan ko 1 trillion dollar economy banne ke liye 700 billion dollars 5-10 saal me loan lena hoga 😅😂abhi to 1-2 billion dollars badi mushkil se mil rahe hai 😂

[JackBlackSM]

Shocking how the host is twisting macroeconomic metrics like Government Debt without considering Pakistan's ability to generate revenues to service the debt! Clearly, the host has never heard about Primary Balance and Primary Deficit. Pakistan is taking more debt to service the interest component of its debt forget the principal! Therefore, the host is just misleading people with his uneducated views on government debt.

[Atheist_GOD]

There is no economist on this planet which can manage Pakistan economy unless it makes fundamental reforms in the system. Remove Army run economy, remove feudal system, remove elite captured business, independent judiciary. Than you need to address the divisions in the society and terrorism, separate elements etc. Even if you succeeded at that. Than you need educational reforms, water management, cheap electricity, energy security etc. if all objectives are achieved then you need a functional democracy for 15-20 years and wait. Then you can think of becoming a trillion dollar economy after 20 years. Otherwise it’s not bad to dream on and stay positive.

[Health-Blitz]

Your Guest is Absolutely Insane if he Thinks That in Central Tokyo You'll get a Luxury Apartment for $2000/Month
Now, the Actual price for even a small 600 Sq Ft Apartment in Tokyo is between $2500-5000 / Month
Kahaan Kahaan Se Aise Logon Ko Uthakar Laato Ho Bhai 🤣 Isliye Paxtan Aagey Nahi Badhta Kyunki Poora Mulk, Sastey Nashe Karke Jhoot Bolta Hai 😂

[ashishsehgal]

5 trillion kyun 500 trillion touch karegi. Aap atomi mulk hai, aap jasbe wali kaum hai, aap kalma pard ke bane they. Aap ke paas number one fauj hai

[kachrachi]

It's quite dangerous to invite pseudo economists who peddle half truths. The worst part is that Muzammil kept saying 'makes sense' in response to ridiculous statements by the guest. By far the worst TBT podcast, we expect better..

[SaiqatUrRada]

Its fishy that gentleman doesn't want to assess the impact of politics and military interference on the economics. Possibly that's what Military Junta and corrupt politicians want to embed in the brain of youth that things will carry on, you just live with it and try harder.
Even aside from that, this is insane optimism. Pakistan's GDP will need to grow 9% year on year for the next 30 years, to achieve this ambitious $5 Trillion mark. To take it to perspective, the last time the growth of 8% was achieved in 2005.
On the basis of Pakistan's demographics, there is a definitely a potential of growth. However, the real growth trajectory will start after 15-20 years, which means that most of the current 25-45 years old population will have to struggle with challenges in their working life. Therefore, its best to strive to change the country's direction or leave the country to come back whenever that growth story starts.

[GSR]

Hope lies in hell, if this is the quality of economists.

one oil price spike and they are totally ducked.

[memanoj]

Tell this expert to give presentation to your IMF bosses..may be he will entertain them as well

[mustufayousuf]

What a coincidence! Episode number 404: Pakistan's Economic Miracle: $5 Trillion in 30 Years. Just like the number, this miracle seems... not found

[WiseRoy_]

OMG. Cocaine-level optimism. Kahin 5 trillion dollar GDP ki jagah 5 trillion dollar debt na ho jaye.

[hamzasyed]

I can confirm here in America things are not as gloomy as Muzamil usually perceives. Yes we've had out issues recently but growth and opportunity is still there for anyone who wants it.

[ghostrider-hkjm]

Funny how this episode number is 404.
Also 404 is Not Found error. Because pakistan can never achieve 1 trillion dollar economy, not in 30 years not even in 100 years.

[hasanmiraj]

actually very smart, out of the box hidden realities by both...good job

[wajidrizvi]

Capacity Payment is not only composed of Debt but also composed of Equity. The Debt payments, undertaken in dollar terms, have witnessed a double whammy of Rupee devaluation and high interest costs, hence making a higher component of overall capacity charges.

[manottamb]

Army has put firewalls in Pakistan economy 😅

[chaitanyakada]

Please read about : Dunning Kruger effect.

Answer one question : Who are the individuals who are very confident about their cognitive abilities and prowess ?

Which category does Farooq fall in ?